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Higher ed can look forward to a stable base of potential students. Human capital theory, like the assumptions of neoliberalism generally, is so ubiquitous in the higher education ecosystem that to argue that it is an ideologically driven theory which holds education responsible for ugly labor market realities would seem outlandish to most higher education administrators and reporters. Maine has been struggling with a falling number of graduates through the 2010s and its flagship university has responded by becoming an importer of students. China's Great Leap Backward: So much for the next dominant superpower Economic Forum did a great thing. "Birth death" - euphemism for lower birth rates But now, Dent argues, the fundamental demographics have turned against the United States and will hit more countries ahead. Rob Sentz: I think for the past year weve been inundated and heavily introduced to the idea of a pandemic. These three states out-of-state preferences lean to schools in Connecticut and Massachusetts, so intra-New-England competition is intense and will likely become more so. Id say since after the civil war, until the mid 1980s, we were sort of building institutions. The 15% of 2015 9th graders who did not complete High School on time numbered about 660,000 (2018 graduation). Will Your College Survive the Demographic Cliff? Human capital theory must be understood within the context of the onset of neoliberalism, which championed a substantially reduced state and a new business culture driven primarily by the interests of owners and shareholders. GOP's 'demographic cliff' and the new politics of immigration So can you tell me about the last three and the reports final recommendations, but what we all need to do to help mitigate sansdemic and the demographic drought? Nevada and Idaho will see the largest increases in graduating classes. Nathan Grawe has presented a more data-intensive and sophisticated argument for a demographic cliff in his 2018 book, Demographics and the Demand for Higher Education. For example, the University of Chicago and University of Illinois-Chicago, both located in the city of Chicago, will be impacted by the cliff differently. And the way you laid that out with the baby boomers finally leaving, even in larger numbers than normal, the lower participation rate in the workforce to some extent, even generation X, but millennials and so on. So its a bit of a holding pattern. I had heard Dent on extended video, and of course I'd seen him as a guest speaker on various business programs, but this was the first of his larger, written works that I've . Heres somebody who has a degree. Myths and Realities . The prime age 18-23 cohort numbered 23.7 million in 2018; in 2036, it will number 23.5 million. Are we going to be online only? Nancy Griffin, chief operating officer, notes the challenges of a state at the center of the nation's demographic decline: "In any given day there are about 31 births and 41 deaths. We need more analysis from Dr. Kraus. The average millennial and the average gen X-er is growing up in a home of less than two. We will address Grawe's arguments in more detail at a later time. Our work . Rob Sentz: The end might be when were all gone. And just keep that all on. Weve just been a generation of people really since the 1970s whose thought really specifically about getting in the market is the most important thing, getting that high paying job is the most important thing. In neoliberal thought, wage stagnation and growing inequality were not the result of real-world developments, such as the attack on labor unions, deindustrialization, a flat minimum wage, the offshoring of work, the proliferation of noncompete agreements, and increasing corporate concentration in all major sectors. Will Your College Survive the Demographic Cliff? - The Chronicle of Scott Jeffe: Oh, thats really interesting. demographic cliff is well-documented and is an area where generational tensions are often considered highest. Opinion | Bogus 'demographic crisis' a scare tactic to destroy UW Governments need to stop the endless stimulus that creates more bubbles and kills the middle class, and should assist in restructuring the unprecedented debt bubble of 1983-2008. Austerity, Labor Exploitation, and the Academic Stretch-Out All Rights Reserved. Thanks Dr. Kraus for helping us unveil the austerity ideology and better understand the motivation of its promoters. We welcome your comments. 5249 North Park Place NE #1061 Cedar Rapids, IA 52402 Phone: 319.362.7483 Toll-Free: 800.876.1117. And so thats something that I plan to do some research on them at some point. This completion metrichighlighted by WICHE measures on-time graduation based on cohort data. Also businesses, like the example you gave, businesses could say, well, when we put a job ad out there, we see 20 people apply to it. How WillHigher Ed InstitutionsWeather the Demographic Cliff? The demographic cliff has been the topic of many articles, Nathan Grawes 2021 and 2018 books, Demographics and the Demand for Higher Education and The Agile College: How Institutions Successfully Navigate Demographic Changes, the leading research on the topic, and Western Interstate Commission for Higher Education (WICHE) report. In 2007, 32% of Americans aged 18-25 were enrolled in an undergraduate program; that figure was up to 38% in 2018. The pool of potential college students is thus understated in the WICHE report. Because three of these four states have above-average Hispanic/Latinx populations, this reallocation may in fact undercount that groups undergraduate representation.). Both groups expanding most rapidly within the US the Hispanic/Latinx and Asian-American populations have higher-than-average college participation rates. I think second is if you go back to the GE illustration, well, GE should be hiring, or whatever company it is, GE should be hiring that person in that entry-level spot and thinking about helping them and training them. Grawes most recent book, The Agile College: How Institutions Successfully Navigate Demographic Changes, largely accepts his earlier books thesiswhich remains unverifiable because his predictions go many years into the futureand advances several policy prescriptions predicated on the need to increase higher education enrollments. Federal educational projections provide no evidence for a demographic cliff on the horizon. The IES Report provides a figure of 32% but it is unclear what the denominator is for that ratio. The U.N . Scott Jeffe: I loved what you wrote about how companies may need to emulate something that higher education has been doing with varying success, some are very successful. BUSINESSES should get lean and mean now. It's just plain wrong. Afterword: Can the Managerial Technique Speak? The word "cliff" has been used to describe projected undergraduate enrollment in the United States. Demographic Cliff, The: Harry S. Dent, Jr., Harry S. Dent, Jr A child sitting on a man's . Please. Scott Jeffe has worked with more than 200 institutions in 40+ states to apply market data to strategic decisions. How the Coronavirus Pandemic Has Shattered the Myth of College in These regions are at the center of many of todays more adventurous developments in higher ed. The Demographic Cliff - Google Books Data Dashboards, Higher Education Finance, and Student Outcomes | AAUP It really is interesting. Ten percent are planning to enroll in a PhD program. I was interested in that the report includes quite a bit of information about how the pandemic is impacting the sansdemicwhat you wrote about the COVID paradox was fascinating. Thats about it. For instance . Like its predecessor, the books target audience does not appear to be a scholarly one. When you know which students are at-risk, you can better allocate your resources to where they are needed most. The University of Maine has gone from 81% of entering undergrads being in-state in 2009 to 54% in 2018. Thats when, in the mid-2020s, the number of traditional college-aged students is predicted to decline significantly. Before the 1960s, if you think about earlier 1930s, 1940s, it was very typical for a company to hire a young person. The first stepsknowing how the demographic cliff will impact your specific institution. But federal data have long shown that a significant majority of jobs typically require only a high school education or less. Dear Commons Community, Jon Boeckenstedt, vice provost for enrollment management at Oregon State University, has an article in The Chronicle of Higher Education entitled, "Will Your College Survive the Demographic Cliff." He provides a data-packed analysis of future enrollment trends in higher education based on demographics especially predicted high school . The governments paying people to not work. Are there people struggling? The student predictions can be aggregated into different student populations, offering recommendations on where and how you should be recruiting students. Rob Sentz: And theres a lot of uncertainy in those settings. This question is for testing whether or not you are a human visitor and to prevent automated spam submissions. And then finally we just saw the lowest birth rate weve ever seen. Bestselling author and financial guru Harry Dent shows why we're facing a "great deflation" after five years of desperate stimulus-and what to do about it now. I love that one. Between 2025 and 2029, the number of college-going students will decline by 15%that's over 400,000 fewer students in a span of four years, an average loss of 100,000 students per year. The first stepsknowing how the demographic cliff will impact your specific institution. Most businesses would be grateful for such stability in their customer base. The central problem with Grawes thesisbased on the straightforward assumption that official data are the most objective availableis that the most recent federal projections of education statistics currently project very modest increases in total higher education enrollments as far as they go into the future, currently through 2030. This Other category is outsized in California, Nevada, Alaska and New Mexico. Thats where advanced analytics can support your institution. Where a school is located is not determinative of enrollment, but where they recruit is. This chart posted here yesterday illustrates the point. Connecticut, New Hampshire and Rhode Island are hardest hit with 18% declines. Austerity becomes the default, and educatorssuccessfully blamed for labor-market realities well beyond their controlare compelled to continuously defend allocations for any tax funding at all. I think thats why they oriented away from the internal training because they can make an ad and just find somebody. In fact, these tallies show a bump in both of these prime age population groupings in the mid 2020s. University of New Hampshire entering students has decreased from 54% to 39% in 2016. Baltimore: Johns Hopkins University Press, 2021. When youre recruiting students, you want students who are a fit, who will thrive at your institution and graduate to be successful alumni. I think its retain, retain, retain, and get to a place where youre truly valuing people a lot more than you did for the past 20 years or so, because its a supply side issue. About The Demographic Cliff. Enrollment rates in higher education | Deloitte Insights Some representative statements: They project the 2037 High School graduating class will include 3.5 million people and will be slightly larger than 2014s. Were just seeing less people, less interest in a lot of ways in those jobs. It sounds to me like its kind of permanent. Weve got to connect to those people. They dont need the degree. Higher ed's impending demographic cliff is a myth Dec 14, 2020 1 Allusions to looming demographic issues provoking a crisis in higher ed are common. Hispanic/Latinx: in 2012, Hispanic/Latinx students represented only 17.6% of undergrad enrollments but 18.4% of the age 18-25 cohort overall in the US, for a deficit of 0.8% and lower enrollment proportional to the younger population. For comparison, their estimate of the 2020 class size is 3.7 million. of Educations Institute of Education Sciences report on Trends in High School Dropout and Completion Rates in the US: 2019. What Do Graduate Employee Unions Have to Do with Academic Freedom? The more you know, the more you can prepare to meet the challenges presented by the demographic cliff and futureproof your institution. Ive gotten used to it. The Demographic Cliff: How to Survive and Prosper During the Great Deflation of 2014-2019 - Kindle edition by Dent, Harry S.. Download it once and read it on your Kindle device, PC, phones or tablets. It predicts student behavior and prescribes actions that will enable you to get the outcome you and the student are looking for. Ive done survey work like this for my entire career. Dent shows that if you take the time to understand demographic data, using it to your advantage isnt all that difficult. What has received much less attention, however, is Grawes uncritical embrace of key tenets of the larger education-reform movement that have become conventional wisdomincluding the assumptions about an underperforming education system and perpetually inadequate workforcethereby enabling the demographic-cliff hypothesis to metastasize in higher education. There are too many books being pushed by corporate hacks and politicians willing to bash higher education for personal gain. (The undergraduate numbers above include Hispanic/Latinx undergraduates of all age groups, which is a flaw, but one that likely depresses this groups potential to attend college. It is important when evaluating works like The Agile College to recognize that wage stagnation and growing inequality are outcomes of neoliberal economic policies and not of inadequate K12 or higher education. Consider developing warning systems to identify struggling students in need of additional assistance. So, I can get the money now, I can wait it out, Ill go back. students, Scott Read more about Scott's experience and expertise. That increase in high school graduation rates is provided by the Dept. The age group 75 to 84 is expected to increase 68% and the group 65 to 74 is forecast to grow 19% by 2030. Are the people who are unemployed and cant find the thing that they really want to be doing? Institutions aware of the cliff and proactively thinking ahead can position themselves to weather the changes. Technology will help but as you wrote in so many cases, technology actually requires more people, different people, but more people. By following his suggestions, readers will be able to find the upside to the downturn and learn how to survive and prosper during the most challenging years ahead. The deadline to request a growth forecast is April 16, 2021. The Agile College: How Institutions Successfully Navigate Demographic Changes by Nathan D. Grawe.Baltimore: Johns Hopkins University Press, 2021. So thats about 50 years of not replacing our population. We're all familiar with the demographic cliff. What were arguing right now is the thing weve been so used to really since the 1960s, we need to start to rethink. And so that is very important to understand, and then theyre going to burn through that capital at some point. Under the heading Big-Picture Lessons, Grawe argued that, while the economys needs for greater educational attainment are substantially higher than we have achieved in recent years, it is possible to imagine plausible policy interventions that could hope to make significant progress on this front. This claim is rooted in human capital theory, the dominant mode of thinking regarding the purpose of education: to provide the population with economic opportunity. Rob Sentz: You throw virtually every student in the country into online education very quickly. We doubled the size of the labor force and you could just sort of take your pick. Please visit the CTAS website for more on the business of higher ed. Forget the Alamo: The Rise and Fall of an American Myth Tomlinson, C. The Worth of Water: Our Story of Chasing Solutions to the World's Greatest Challenge . So between 16 and 65, where we just keep seeing that sort of plummeting labor force participation rate, which means working age people are out. The demographic cliff of traditional college students that is projected to arrive in the middle of this decade is a well-known fact among higher education leaders. And what we repeatedly heard these officials say was that their education and training budgets, and even tuition reimbursement dollars had been caught, or certainly not added to, because they couldnt afford to invest in new employees that were likely to leave in the first year or so. Roughly thirty-five years ago, the Reagan administrations Workforce 2000 report, produced by the Hudson Institute and credited with creating the skills-gap narrative, foreshadowed the demographic-cliff panic, including its corollary preoccupation with racial change. A lot of people were going to school. Eighty percent of the schools in the analysis will see negative growth rates over the next eight years. For example, 4.0 million babies were born in 2002. This site requires JavaScript to run correctly. Identify segments that you can clearly dominate and sell off or shut down others. So for higher ed, how do we help people who have been dislocated, impacted, and are struggling? What's more, the profiles of our students are changing. Lines and paragraphs break automatically. Projected to begin in 2025 (and likely continuing for decades), a "demographic cliff" for higher education is coming to the United States in the form of a dramatic drop in the traditional, college-aged population. Demographics and the Demand for Higher Education, The Agile College: How Institutions Successfully Navigate Demographic Changes, Western Interstate Commission for Higher Education (WICHE), Futureproofing Institutions Against the Demographic Cliff. Heres somebody whose been in the industry, well hire that person. They project the largest ever pool of graduating high schoolers in 2025 (3.9 million). But this is also an ecosystem in which official labor market and educational attainment data are rarely cited, even though they tell the story of an increasingly educated population in a low-education, low-wage labor market. You can also see what will positively or negatively impact a student or group of students retention scores. Cliff is a word that inherently contains a fair amount of drama, visually and otherwise. The data we used for our research is a blend of Nathan Grawes 2018 data and the WICHE forecasts from their ninth publication. Rather, economic hardship was the fault of allegedly inferior K12 and higher education systems. Economist Nathan Grawes 2018 Demographics and the Demand for Higher Education set off shock waves in the higher education community by crystallizing the demographic-cliff narrative. There is no cliff. Blaming education for the fallout of decisions made by employers and policy makers ultimately established the chronically weak political status of education and provided justification for decades of misplaced reforms in both K12 and higher education. For example, in its latest annual Retirement Confidence The Demographic Cliff by Harry S. Dent Jr. - Audiobook | Scribd Yes. Thats what we had a generation orient to. While it is true that the birth rate fell from 4.3 million a year in 2007 to 4.0 million in 2010, it stabilized at that lower level through 2016, with births similar to years before 2007. The institutions in the sample are in the United States and represent four-year colleges, both public and private, and large and small. Almost all high school students eventually receive a high school diploma. Having more babies would have had to start 20 or 40 years ago. The baby boomers were essentially 76 million people moving through the economy. Understanding Higher Education's Enrollment Cliff, Trough and Recovery Thats where you got that concept of, Im a GE Man.. Advanced analytics helps you better understand your individual students and how they will fit at your institution. Download the paper for a richer analysis of our findings. Yes, obviously, but whats happened is weve got a massive generation move through, amass huge amounts of wealth, have far fewer children. With educational attainment rates at historic highs, official data have also shown consistently high underemployment rates among bachelors degree holders for at least the last several decades, not to mention the legions of underemployed advanced-degree holders. You alluded to this right in your opening, 19 million people filed for unemployment. It included discussions on economic history, macroeconomics, microeconomics, economic and financial analyses, entrepreneuralship. Georgia's population has been increasing, and growth is expected to continue. He offers advice on retirement planning, health care, real estate, education, investing, and business strategies. If that person doesnt have all the skills that you ultimately want, you probably should hire them and then help them get the skills that they need.