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Prices in the Honolulu area, as measured by the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U), rose 6.0 percent in January 2022 over the last 12 months. Department of Business, Economic Development & Tourism Subscribe to our FREE newsletter and let Hawaii come to you. Hawaiis rising inflation follows the national trend where the U.S. consumer prices increased 7.5 percent over the past year. The state may move to implement tests within 1 or 2 days of travel instead of 3 days. Most of the sales 60% are to local buyers. Eslinger expects airline seats from Canada will grow 0.2% this year compared to 2019. In the current report, DBEDT predicts that Hawaiis economic growth rate, as measured by real domestic product (GDP), will increase 3.2 percent in 2022 over the previous year. Compared with 2019 and 2020, visitors from the U.S. mainland now spend more on a daily basis and stay longer. Honolulu, HI - National Weather Service The rainy season has also lasted longer into the spring during La Niayears. In 2021, U.S. mainland visitors accounted for 95.4 percent of total visitors, representing a 94.1 percent recovery from the 2019 level. According to the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, Hawaii's economic growth rate, as measured by the growth of real gross domestic product (GDP), dropped 10.8 percent in 2020 and increased 3.2 percent during the first three quarters of 2021. For starters, there are fewer airline seats allocated to Hawaiis top U.S. market than last year, said Jeffrey Eslinger, senior director of market insights for the Hawaii Visitors & Convention Bureau, which was awarded a multiyear, $34 million contract Monday to market Hawaii and brand the destination to U.S. visitors. Often called the "Big Island" to help distinguish it from the 1,500-mile-long archipelago with which it shares its name, Hawaii, the Big Island has certainly earned its nickname. Through its attached agencies, the department fosters planned community development, creates affordable workforce housing units in high-quality living environments, and promotes innovation sector job growth. Visitor Satisfaction & Activity Report. >> Sales of single-family homes and condos are booming with double-digit increases on every island, Tian said. If your comments are inappropriate, you may be banned from posting. In October 2022, non-agriculture payroll jobs (not seasonally adjusted), for all industries combined, recovered 93.9 percent as compared with the same month in 2019. At the same time, we will see more extended group trip vacations. Uncertainties in 2023 Hawaii Travel Forecast Emerge Since the weather can be so unpredictable in Hawaii, keeping a small poncho with you during hikes or other outdoor activities is a good idea. The declining labor force participation rate is a sign of just how tight the labor market is and indicates a labor shortage. In 2022, and measured in current prices, total visitor spending was $19.3 billion, or 9.0 percent higher than the spending during 2019. Gert. Even if you do not plan to visit the summit areas on Maui or the Big Island (or visit either of these islands at all), a light jacket might be useful in other areas around the island you're visiting where elevations are above 3,000-4,000 ft (914-1,219m). Download your copy of our The last few years, especially when El Nino has been the active pattern, have seen increased activity around the islands, so its essential to monitor accordingly when planning and taking your trip to Hawaii. High levels of tourism haven't gone without a negative impact on the islands of Hawaii. Hawaii economists revise forecast downward amid Covid loss of 118K jobs. Heritage Sites Learn more about what has shaped Hawai'i. Slight summer cool-down predicted for Hawaii tourism Of the homes sold in 2021, 19,696 units or 75.8 percent were sold to local buyers and 24.2 percent or 6,274 were sold to out-of-state buyers. U.S. visitor arrivals by air were 13.7 percent higher than those who came during 2019. International visitors arriving by air recovered 30.3 percent from 2019. Oahu, which had been slower to recover from the pandemic than the other islands, is the only isle where seats are projected to increase for each of the summer months and for the year. The value of residential permits accounts for 53.2 percent of the total permit value. Record-Breaking Hawaii Travel Pulls in Front of Entire U.S. June 1, 2022 / 3 Comments. Hawaii's tourism recovery quickly resumed after the Omicron wave receded. The weather from one side of an island to the other varies greatly over distance and topography. The forecast projects an increase of 2.1 percent in 2024, 1.8 percent in 2025, and 1.5 percent in 2026. Guide of Hawaii, LLC is a privately-owned (non-government) business. Add to that exorbitant taxes (18% on Hawaii accommodations) and fees of all types. Still, we can look at the long-term trends and get a general idea of what to expect. Between 2008 and 2021, 75.0 percent of the residential homes were purchased by residents. In an effort to inspire mindful travel, Hawaiis industry partners & volunteer groups have come together to encourage visitors to leave Hawaii better than when they arrived. Visitor Statistics - Hawaii Arrivals are projected to increase to 9.8 million in 2023, 10.2 million in 2024, and 10.5 million in 2025, fully recovering to the 2019 level. Hawaii is a great year-round destination, but the best weather is generally found in April, May, September, and October. Hawaii Guide: Travel Resources & Things To Do in the Hawaiian Islands This was followed by 1.8 percent growth in the second quarter of 2022, 1.9 percent in the third quarter of 2022, 0.9 percent in the fourth quarter of 2022, and 1.6 percent in the first quarter of 2023 as compared to the same quarters of the previous year. Granted, there are two distinct times of the year, and weather patterns due vary to the trade winds, but there is no defined "rainy season." While health authorities are examining whether this subvariant of Omicron could extend the length of the COVID -19 wave, it remains to be seen how these new variants may disrupt the economic recovery. Visitor Plant Inventory. 15 30 45 60 75. mph. Mahalo! Through its attached agencies, the department fosters planned community development, creates affordable workforce housing units in high-quality living environments, and promotes innovation sector job growth. June offers very little, if any, rain. Total visitor spending is projected to grow at 7.5 percent, 4 percent, and 5.1 percent, respectively for 2023, 2024, and 2025. Temperatures. Visitor spending is estimated to increase 9.3 percent in 2023. The average daily visitor census increased 17.6 percent in the first quarter of 2023 compared to the same quarter in 2022. Its the reason why we need some type of managed tourism plan now. The 7-Day Moving Average measures daily passenger arrivals to Hawai'i (including visitors and residents) from the U.S., Japan other international source markets. Hawaii's weather is warm all year round with daytime high temperatures ranging from 78F in the "colder" months to 88F in the hotter months. All rights reserved. Since May 2021, the U.S. visitor count has surpassed the 2019 monthly levels. Traditionally, the peak summer travel season in Hawaii runs from Memorial Day through Labor Day. Here are a few additional things to keep in mind, summarized, about Hawaii's weather: The islands of Hawaii are affected by the trade winds. Oahu Weather - including Honolulu weekly forecast, rainfall and temperature graphs, and precipitation map. Taylor Gabatino Undergraduate Research Assistant Victoria Ward Graphic Design and Layout 2021 Third Quarter UHERO Hawaii Forecast | UHERO i Executive Summary Hawaii's recovery has experienced a setback with the recent surge in COVID-19. Hawaii visitors threw caution to the wind and spent without remorse this year. Ka Oihana Hoomohala Poihana, Imi Waiwai a Hoomkaikai, State Economic Forecast Unchanged Despite Significant Downward Revision for the U.S. Economy, About the Department of Business, Economic Development & Tourism (DBEDT). Make sure you pack accordingly if you plan to be in those areas during your trip. Hawaii economists revise forecast downward amid Covid-19 loss of All rights reserved. The winter months usually bring more rain to the windward side of the islands- along the north and east-but prolonged rainstorms are uncommon. Research and Economic Analysis Division Report comments if you believe they do not follow our guidelines. As the negative impacts on our economy from the Covid-19 pandemic subsides, we find ourselves facing another challenge. Of the homes sold in 2021, 46.4 percent or 12,048 were single-family homes and 53.6 percent or 13,922 of them were condo units. Also Thursday . For the current forecasting period (up to 2025), non-agriculture payroll jobs will not recover to the pre-pandemic (2019) level until after 2025. In January, there were. Hawaiis labor market conditions continued to improve throughout 2021 with unemployment rates decreasing to a seasonally adjusted rate of 5.7 percent in December 2021 and 4.9 percent at not seasonally adjusted rate. Hawaii Tourism Authority Announces Resumption of Kukulu Ola and Aloha Hawaii is forecast to reach nearly 10 million tourists in 2024 The president and first lady Jill Biden are slated to travel to Hawaii Monday to survey the destruction from the Maui wildfires. The value of government contracts awarded during the first three quarters of 2022 was the highest since the 1980s for a 3-quarter period. DBEDT is Hawaiis resource center for economic and statistical data, business development opportunities, energy and conservation information, and foreign trade advantages. Theres a tremendous amount of uncertainty, and almost all of it is coming from the omicron variant., Were in a much, much better place than we were a year ago, Bonham said. With every 1,000 ft. (305m) climb in elevation, the temperature, on average, drops another 3.5F (-9.8C/1000m). Resident Sentiment Survey. I remain positive about being able to improve the economic prosperity for all of Hawaiis citizens because of their commitment to be safe, resilient, innovative, patient and to persevere. The value for the residential permits decreased by $136.9 million or 28.5 percent from the same period in the previous year. That was very interesting and a surprise that both economists pointed out that there was an uptick in residential permits, and they stressed it was on the residential side and not the commercial side, Luke said. The report projected a positive 0.7 percent U.S. economic growth for 2024. Visitor arrivals are projected to increase to 10.2 million in 2024, 10.4 million in 2025, and 10.6 million in 2026. According to the most recent (November 2022) economic projections by top 50 economic forecasting organizations published in Blue Chip Economic Indicators, U.S. economic growth in 2022 is expected to be at 1.8 percent in 2022 and a mere 0.2 percent in 2023. Hurricane Tracker. >> With a 6% seasonally adjusted unemployment rate, Hawaii ranks sixth highest in the nation, and the pandemic has led to the loss of over 91,500 payroll jobs, with 55,500 of them on Oahu, Tian said. Haena is a model of success, and we can mirror that in other parts, including Iao Valley (on Maui). Department of Business, Economic Development and Tourism Visitor arrivals to Maui, Kauai, and Hawaii islands have recovered over 95 percent during the first 10 months of 2022 while Oahu's recovery was below 80 percent. Tropical storms and hurricanes are unusual in the Golden State but with Tropical Storm Kay's impact last year, it's no longer uncommon. In January 2022, the state net individual income tax revenue increased 42.8 percent from the same month of 2019. But they stopped short. Hawaii's proximity to the equator means that its weather is tropically warm and consistent throughout the year. As a comparison, the average weekly initial unemployment claims were 1,200 in 2019. Indeed, hotels showed weakening performance in the most recent Hawaii Hotel Performance Report. Every act of aloha counts. Eric Takahata Hawaii Tourism Japan managing director Prev Next Visitors from Japan to Hawaii are only about 18% recovered from pre-pandemic times, sparking concern that what was once the. Ultimately, our message is simple: Keep the topography and elevation of where you are traveling in mind and prepare accordingly. Hawaiis consumer inflation rate, as measured by the Honolulu Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers, is estimated to increase 3.1 percent in 2023. But lest we forget that just a few southwest of the wettest spot on earth, the area of Kekaha on Kauai receives only 15-25" (40-60 cm) of rain a year; quite the contrast! Some 6.8 million visitors are expected to have arrived in 2021, once the December numbers are calculated, Tian said. Hawaiis labor force participation rate continues to trend down and averaged 60.1 percent in 2021, down from 61.7 percent in March 2020. Green, a balancing act with no margin for error, DLNR names interim water deputy following Maui fires, Details emerge on some of the victims through social media, Rice shortage sending prices soaring worldwide, Tech View: Grassroots tech efforts support Maui recovery, American Airlines pilots ratify contract with big pay raises, Voice of Nintendos beloved Mario character steps down, Aug. 24, 1959: Hiram Fong, Daniel Inouye make history in Congress, By Allison Schaefers aschaefers@staradvertiser.com. Mahalo! The state unemployment rate will gradually improve as economic growth returns. These rates are lower than the ones projected last quarter. Home - Hawaii Tourism Authority These two weather systems/events have an impact on the islands. >> Hawaii retail sales saw double-digit increases every month for the first three quarters of 2021. Hawaii also is now facing greater competition as most global destinations have fully reopened to travel. Since the last DBEDT economic forecast in August of this year, the states economy has remained firm, with improvements in major indicators. Hawaii is expected to see 8.86 million visitors this year, followed by annual increases until pre-pandemic record numbers are nearly reached in 2024, when the islands are forecast to see 9.9 million tourists. Optimistic UHERO forecast with Omicron end, expected return of The average civilian labor force participation rate in 2019 was 60.9 percent. Department of Business, Economic Development and Tourism NA Not available or not applicable. Our visitor industry performance, labor market conditions, and general excise tax revenue collections are all improving. Department of Business, Economic Development & Tourism, Non-agricultural wage & salary jobs (thousands), Real gross domestic product (millions of 2012$), Gross domestic product deflator (2012=100). What's the outlook for Hawaii travel in 2023? - Travel Weekly Forecast Eye Path updated 2 . Copyright 2023 StarAdvertiser.com. The 18,000 positions that remain unfilled represent the highest number since 2019 and may be hampered by applicants who are not qualified, Tian said. Hawai'i's Department of Business, Economic Development and Tourism estimates nearly 10 million visitors have . The average daily rate paid for a hotel room in Hawaii increased 0.5% to $376 per night. Hawaii Tourism Authority Research & Report Site. All rights reserved. The Federal Reserve Bank continues to fight inflation through incremental interest rate hikes. For more information, visit our Maui Weather article. Arrivals from the United States over the current three-day weekend are forecast to reach 28,057, a decrease from the 32,267 tourist arrivals that came during last years holiday and from the 35,723 who came in 2019, according to a report from ARC/ForwardKeys Destination Gateway. *Climate Notes: Weather and Climate numbers are aggregated from trusted weather sources providing the monthly temperature and precipitation figures for each island's primary airport. Hawaii will welcome an estimated 9.9 million visitors in 2023, an increase of 7.2 percent from the 2022 level. But sales to foreign buyers average prices of $2.2 million, compared with $1.58 million to mainland buyers and only $877,000 for local buyers. Having trouble with comments? Learn more here. West coast visitors are spending 46% more. Visitor spending is projected to grow at 7.9 percent, 4.9 percent, and 3.5 percent, respectively for 2023, 2024, and 2025. The increase in inflation was partly driven by energy prices, which jumped 35.2 percent due to an increase in crude oil prices. Copyright 2023 StarAdvertiser.com. Tropical Storm Hilary Makes Landfall and Threatens 'Catastrophic The local, nontourism economy has reached full recovery, at a 93.4% recovery rate, but the tourism economy still lags at only 78.5%, Tian said. Flowers are always in bloom in Hawaii. Year Round Weather & Present Day Forecasts for Hawaii The forecast projects a decrease to 2.8 percent in 2024, 2.6 percent in 2025, and 2.5 percent in 2026. Travel conditions will deteriorate into early week as Hilary approaches then passes nearby as a . Forecasting the weather on Hawaii can be both daunting and confusing to visitors - this isn't the mainland, and the climate takes some getting used to. Greg Max Wind Speeds. The most recent economic projections at the national level by the Blue Chip Economic Indicators (February 2022 issue) lowered the U.S. economic growth rate for 2022 from 4.0 percent in its November 2021 issue (when DBEDT performed 4Q 2021 forecast) to 3.7 percent in February 2022 issue. Government contracts awarded increased 334.6 percent during the first nine months of 2022 as compared with the same period in 2021. Sky-high Hawaii prices, taxes, and fees. Sign up for our free e-newsletter to get the latest news delivered to your inbox. This variety of weather allows you to fully experience Hawaii and its sun-drenched beaches, misty rainbow-filled valleys, pristine waterfalls, cool highlands, and lush mountains. County Social, Business and Economic Trends in Hawaii; Hawaii Facts & Figures; Other Web Sites with Statistics; Forecasts. In 2023, Hawaiis economic growth is expected to slow down further, to 1.7 percent, due to the expected global economic downturn. Although tourism has yet to fully recover, Tian said, tourism is the sector driving economic growth.. The not seasonally adjusted non-agricultural payroll jobs grew 4.6 percent during the first 10 months of 2022 from the same period in 2021, representing a recovery rate of 92.3 compared with the same period 2019 level. Of the homes sold during first nine months of 2022, 12,922 units or 75.0 percent were sold to local buyers and 4,315 units or 25.0 percent were sold to out-of-state buyers. We have seen increases in investment and consumption in our state during the past 12 months especially from a boom in the construction industry and real estate market. Travel Tips for Hawaii's Big Island. Essential information and guidance for the visitor industry and businesses to understand how to accurately represent Hawaii and Hawaiian culture.